Defeating the bad guys

打败坏家伙们 （3）



副题：America's plunging『跳进的；突进的』crime rates have attracted attention across the world, not least in Britain. What's the secret?
美国犯罪率高涨不止已经引起了包括英国在内的全世界的重视。其原因何在呢？

[12]Some people suppose that increasing prosperity『繁荣；兴旺』may affect crime in more fundamental 『基本的；根本的』ways. When people are better off and unemployment is low (it is 4.5% at present), there is simply less incentive『刺激的；鼓励的』to rob others, and perhaps less incentive even to hurt them. Historically, crime rates tend to fall in boom years; the lowest recorded point for murder occurred『发生；出现』in the mid-1950s. Yet research has also shown that local economic booms can actually cause certain sorts of crime to rise.

[12]某些人认为，经济的日益繁荣能够以较根本的方式影响犯罪。当人们的钱包鼓起来和失业率下降（目前是4.5％）时，人们就不那么想抢劫不属于自己的东西，也许更不用说去伤害他人了。在经济繁荣的年代，犯罪率历来都会下降；谋杀案发案率在50年代中期创记录地降至最低点。不过，研究结果还表明，当地经济繁荣实际上致使某种犯罪率上升。

[13]The explanations are bothersome『令人讨厌的，麻烦的』not only because they are ambiguous『不明确的；含糊不清的』. This is why the news of falling crime rates has been greeted with only muted『无言的；无声的』joy. The economy may sometimes seem to be breaking free of old cycles, but sooner or later there will probably be a downturn『衰退；下降』.

[13]做出解释由于含糊不清及其他的什么原因，变得很令人讨厌。这也就是为什么对犯罪率下降的消息仅仅报以无声的满意的原因所在了。或许有时候经济会脱离过去的阴影，但是迟早会有衰退的。

[14]Within a few years, the numbers of 15-21-year-olds in the country will be rising again. Yet the point is not the sheer『纯粹的』number of teenage boys; it is the number living messy『混乱的』lives. By 2000, three-fifths of black youths turning 15 will have been born to single mothers.

[14]几年内，国内15?/FONT>21岁青少年的数量又会上升。然而使人担心的不是单纯的青少年的数字，而是这些孩子生活在混乱之中。到2000年时，现在的3/5的黑人儿童将要到达15岁，他们都是在单亲妈妈家庭长大的。

[15]Police departments also know that juvenile crime『青少年犯罪』and property crime - have not fallen back to anywhere and they know, besides, that crime has not fallen everywhere. There are signs that it may merely have moved to new terrain『地域；地带』. Because the big cities, wired『装有报警器的』and well-policed『警察戒备严的』, have become difficult for criminals to work in, they have moved to more modest-sized『不太大的』cities in areas that were once relatively crime-free.

[15]警察局也知道青少年犯罪和抢劫犯罪并没有降到哪里去，另外，也不是每个地方的犯罪都下降了。有迹象表明犯罪仅仅是转移到了新的地方。因为在大城市，由于很多地方都装有报警器而且警察的戒备也很森严，已经不利于犯罪分子的活动了。他们已经转移到了犯罪相对容易的地区的相对较小的城市了。

[16]The numbers tell the story the crime rates have risen since 1993 in places like Nashville, Phoenix, Milwaukee and Charlotte, North Carolina: pleasant cities, which no one would call deeply troubled, but whose population has been growing rapidly.

[16]数字说明了这个事实：1993年以来，在一向令人心驰神往的城市象内什维尔，菲尼克斯，密尔沃基和北卡罗来纳州的夏洛特犯罪率都有上升，在那里没有人声称有很大的麻烦，但是其人口一直在迅速地增长。

[17]In fact, crime rates are rising in most medium-sized towns across the country. And, though crime in central Washington, DC, has fallen, in some parts of that city's suburbs crime rates have doubled, growing much faster than the population.

[17]事实上，在全国索引的中等城市中犯罪率都在上升。尽管在华盛顿特区的中心地带犯罪率下降了，可是在这座城市郊区的某些地方犯罪率却翻了一翻，比人口增长的速度快多了。

[18]In short, crime seems to behave much as a flu virus『感冒病毒』does. It adapts『使适应；使适合』itself to new factors and new forces, and inoculation『预防接种』against one strain『种类；品种』does not guarantee any immunity『免疫力』from the next one. It moves around as people do and, like most social activities, follows fashions. For at its base, of course, is flawed『有缺点的；有错误的』human nature: which is, unfortunately, a statistical constant『忠诚的；真实的』.

[18]总之，犯罪看起来就象感冒病毒一样。它会使自身适应新的环境。为预防一种病毒而接种的疫苗并不能保证对下一次的病毒还具有免疫力。象人一样，它也具有流动性；象大多数社会活动一样，它也追求时尚。从根本上讲犯罪是人性的缺陷：很不幸，这种不幸被统计恒量反映了出来。

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